Before beginning, a celebration: today, Monday 25th 2009, beside being Memorial Day in US,is the anniversary of President Kennedy speech that launched the moon program.
In the words of Shakespeare:
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio,
Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
This post will be a little bit more “roaming through knowledge” than the usual.
Actually, it is part of a series, first published in May 2009.
But, following the dictum of somebody else, I will make things as simple as possible, but not simpler.
What is the point? Talking about ways of representing and forecasting the expected decisions of groups and individuals, and some projects that try to build a “model” of what we are and could be- be it our DNA or our brain.
And, while doing this, recalling some useful concepts that you can apply in whatever you do in your business and personal life- including when you are on the receiving end of the results of a model.
As usual- theory is converted into (hopefully) plain English, and the examples are from real life and experience in business, politics, technology- and their impact on personal and business life.
PREVIOUSLY
GMN2009: GENOME AND BRAIN MAPPING
The visible title of this section is “Genome and brain mapping”.
The link is named “cathedrals”.
It is not a criticism: it is a realistic assessment.
Beside the human genome and brain mapping, this section will discuss also how these and other mapping initiatives could affect not just science and medicine, but our everyday life.
GMN2009: NEXT- BEYOND THE SKULL
We moved from the concept of model, change, and project, to their application in ordinary business life, and to create something with relevant potential social impact, on both businesses and people- the Human Genome Project and the future brain mapping.
But all this covered only the “Genome, mind mapping” part of the title.
Neural networks are both a concept and a technology, and the impact is already visible in some decision-making activities, and in everyday technological products and services.
What could be a further development? What are going to be potential impacts on how we organize, structure, decide, act?
Again, some simple lessons derived by the computer between your ears.
And, I promise: I will not create any neologisms- I will use what is already available on the market- actually, in science.
A point: I wrote “derived by” and not “derived from”- because I assume that, once in a while… writing requires some thinking.
And my line of thinking for this (shorter) conclusive section is quite simple:
- whatever I wrote about before, and more available from other sources, is just a set of tools to an end
- we can learn more from looking in a simple way at our brain- making it simple, but not simpler
- neural networks are trying just an attempt at imitating life- or something more?
- finally, how to apply this material
An unfortunate consequence of the focus on details and specialization that we introduced in our society is that, often, tools are converted in to-do lists, instead of being just that- tools to an end.
And this is event more true when the tools are presented with the usual jargon-filled approach.
I remember that in 1990 the marketing manager of my company (I was reporting to her and the CEO) had received as a gift a funny one-page document.
The title? Buzzword maker.
Whenever I read of a new “paradigm shift” in management, I remember that three-columns page, that allowed to keep being “creative”.
Alternatives? Why not- a 3-dice set containing on each face a different “buzz-generating” word.
Toss the dice, and get the buzz for your next meeting or presentation 
The farther the tool from your own experience, the easier is to fell into the trap- and to feel compelled to use all the tools at your disposal, not the just the needed ones.
Also, another scourge of our time is the lack of personal time.
And, therefore, instead of reading books, we read summaries- like the famous “7 habits of most effective people”.
If you are really into self-improvement, I would suggest instead of have a look at “learning to think in 15 days” or “six hats” from Edward De Bono. The latter, I heard from his own voice while attending a conference in Milan.
And, frankly, he is more convincing as a speech than as a book- still useful as a framework on how to develop group ideas, by trying to synchronize when to discuss idea, and when to went ideas.
Another source for self-improvement is the site of the Rand Corporation.
They publish online studies and reports on almost any subjects- and certainly interesting food for thought.
Sometimes, a study on, say, the education of teachers in California could inspire you on how to improve the management of knowledge, and development of people, in your own organization.
Moreover, have a look at the keywords “decision” and “Internet”. Or the classical “Delphi” (no, not the oracle- the group decision method).
Another, but more scientific-oriented (including social and space science) is the National Academy of Sciences.
Both publish also Acrobat studies available online for free.
Frankly- I find these more useful than all those books on “how to communicate clearly” or “how to be a CEO in two days”, and so on.
And once you have collected the (knowledge) tools, it is time to use what is needed.
But before of using models, and discussing of neural networks and expert systems, let’s clarify something about the brain, making it simple, but not simpler.
Because the purpose is just to understand some principles that could have a use in normal decision-making activities, exploiting the way our brain works.
I think that I gave already too much “technological” information about the nuts-and-bolts of the brain yesterday.
More material is available on Wikipedia, under “brain” or “neuron”.
Yes, it is true, just thinking to how many connections between neurons are inside your brain is mind-boggling.
But what matters is understanding some basic mechanisms.
I know that the basic approach is to consider the brain as an electric circuit. But I found it unsatisfactory.
And, considering that I live currently in Brussels, not too far from Bruges and Amsterdam, and that I liked Venice…
… let’s talk about canals.
If you want to move a boat from canal A to canal B, sometimes you just need to ensure that there is a connection between the two- or join them (well, this could take time), or find a path through channels that get from A to B.
Not necessarily the shortest one- you want to avoid traffic, already busy canals, and so on.
But if you want to move from canal A to canal B, and A is on a higher level than B, you will need a kind of “elevator” joining the two canals, that takes the boat from canal A to the “elevator”, boxes the boat between two locked gates, lower the level of water so that the boat reaches level B, and then unlock the front gate, and let the boat go to channel B.
No other boat can flow from canal A to canal B while the operation is in process.
Moreover- once you move from canal A to canal B, you can report back some issues, to that, say, the next boat is set waiting, or hurried up.
We have just completed a short introduction to the activation or “firing” of neurons.
In some cases, neurons can receive from multiple neurons. In other cases, neurons need a certain number of messages from other neurons before activated.
In any case, you could also send back a message to avoid other messages.
But we are not a “tabula rasa”- as Chomsky and others discussed, part of the basic machinery of language is part of our brain “wiring”, and part is acquired by learning.
The canal navigation approach has another positive educational effect: canals are a system. And follow some rules that are linked to both being a boat and being a boat used to achieve a purpose.
As an example, during the WWII, boats traveling from Europe to US contained supplies, while on the way back contained prisoners of war (read the book “The Barbed Wire College” for a study of the consequences of an interesting social experiment then adopted).
But the brain is not just a fixed structure, like the canals- it is also the main reason while we can adapt to any environment- and why there humans anywhere the environment can sustain their presence.
When imitating life via expert systems and neural networks, science writers like Isaac Asimov found that a learning system would need a framework of reference.
Hence, the famous “three laws of robotics”:
1 – A robot may not injure a human being, or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
2 – A Robot must obey the orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
3 – A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.
from “I, Robot” (retrieved here).
In 1980s, I was interested in Artificial Intelligence, specifically a language called PROLOG, and I joined an association called “GULP” (Gruppo Utenti Logic Programming, i.e. Logic Programming User Group).
The interesting part of PROLOG is that is based on the concept of “declaring” the logic of the program as a set of relations: asking to the program a question is like asking to the program to “prove” that what you asked vs. a set of relations.
Using this approach, or other languages that followed other “artificial intelligence” approaches, some of the first practical applications were focused on insurance, credit card scoring, logistics, and so on.
But moving from a simple question/answer dialogue, requires something more.
Requires learning.
And this is where the paths diverge.
Some followed the approach shown above, by having the program modifying itself, adding new “declarations”.
Others, by creating so-called neural networks that imitate the “canal/boat” approach listed above (of course, with more nuances, etc).
The main issue is, again, learning.
If you assume that learning is just linked to data- then, any approach can satisfy your concept of learning.
But another school states that learning is also related to your social environment- hence, the recovery of Asimov’s laws not as such, but as a discussion point.
In 2007 started being available on the market the first announces of “neuron on a chip”- but still the discussion about how a machine should learn is generating thousands of pages every year.
Without entering the discussion, you can anyway benefit from this ongoing research in any activity by adopting a simple rule: keep monitoring.
Any activity, beside the framework identified during the definition of the model or “business case” (as it is called in some methodologies), should use the results of the monitoring according to the rules agreed to at the beginning of the activity.
In some cases, it makes sense to “accumulate” this knowledge, and focus on re-assessing your way of doing- but for future activities.
In other cases, it is worthwhile to insert in your plans “milestones” and “checkpoints”, where you can refocus or review not only the activities so far, but also modify the forthcoming ones.
In still other cases, it is critical to immediately “feed-back” the results of the continuous monitoring, or of the sample audit into the process.
An interesting development is linked to the increased complexity of new experts systems and “machine learning” products, as, after imitating life, now is also able to allow improve the studies on who we really learn.
But then, how to apply this material?
“Cum grano salis”.
If you have specific doubts or ideas, contact me. I am willing to discuss any point in general terms, under one condition: the discussion, removing what can be linked to your specific situation, will be pro-bono, and shared online, to allow further uses.
The material published in GMN2009 will be updated, and soon also a more structured version, in e-book format, will be available online, collecting all the material.
If you are interest in receiving it when available, send me a direct message on my twitter.
And, of course, send me on the same channel any comment.
This concludes the series GMN2009, and a new series will start soon.
The theme? A virtual training course in identifying, structuring, building your own activity, from a cultural and business perspective.
If you want- building a sustainable business.
The end result? You will be able to build your own business and marketing plan not as a number crunching exercise, but understanding the how, why, and what needs to be inside your head before you write something representing your future business.
And if you ask… yes, it will be based on my over 10 years of experience in business planning and sensibly longer experience in building/dissolving business relationships through negotiations.
Tags: artificial, asimov, beyond, boat, canal, expert, gmn2009, intelligence, kennedy, law, learning, lift, moon, network, neural, next, president, program, project, prolog, self-improvement, skull, system