If you weren’t outside this planet over the last few weeks, you heard some sabre rattling.
And maybe you heard also of the proposed doctrinal change on war from the US military.
More a litany, than just few examples.
Such as shifting on Iran from engagement to de-facto containment , the Turkish political side trying to take over control of the secularist military through judicial initiatives and, as often repeated by the former Italian head of the UN forces in Lebanon, the continued violations of Lebanon’s airspace from Israeli forces
To say nothing about the recurring news items, such as the sale of weapons to Taiwan and the reassertion of the unease at yet another EU member accepting to be the hosting site for antimissile defence.
The paradox is that all this is counterbalanced by even more integration and increase in the need of mutual assistance from the countries involved.
PS Yes, this preamble is shared with the previous article, “Drawing maps“.
PPS And… yes, this repetition was needed, as the introduction will show.
PPPS Often thinking outside the box requires first being able to look at the box focusing on the future- to identify that the future is now.
Looking at the facts
Following the guidelines that I described in a previous article (see “Maximizing costs, minimizing ROI“), this article was inspired by simply connecting strings of unrelated but mutually influencing news items.
This time, jumping over the cliff- and trying to see things upside down.
The facts- Turkey, Israel, Iran (in geographical order, North to South) all share one issue: have developed the human and industrial infrastructure required for advanced research and production.
Most people forget that part of the “non-proliferation treaty” (NPT) was the knowledge transfer to allow the civilian use of nuclear energy.
The reason? Just read any short history of the Manhattan and Trinity projects- and what will surprise you is the sheer scale of the organizations involved.
Nuclear energy (with or without weapons) requires developing a stable social structure, able to train the scientists and technicians, while creating organizations where their efforts can be coordinated toward a common goal.
Transferring the knowledge was part of the “NPT package”- partially successful, if you consider that some countries signed but retained the right to get ready if needed, and others simply ignored it (with or without “blessings” from the permanent members of the UN Security Council).
And being realistic implies accepting that Israel and Iran have both shown to be able to set in place the basic building blocs needed to carry out credible nuclear energy projects (and their non-civilian siblings).
If you look at the data, and also at some fervour in creating new institutions for basic and applied research in the Arabian Peninsula, it seems that Turkey could do the same leap, and other countries in the region are preparing.
The main difference is the relative size and internal cohesion of the countries involved- and that’ s why I count in Turkey, and count out other countries.
What joins the three countries, beside their industrial development, is that they are in a strategic position for international trade, and that they are worried about potential instability in their neighbourhood.
To the point of de-facto cooperating with countries that could not be certainly defined their allies, in containing potential sources of instability.
Incidentally- Saudi Arabia in Spring 2009 tried to build a “coalition of the willing” with other Arab countries, to contain both Iran and Israel.
And, for all the weaknesses, Turkey, Israel, Iran are democracies (despite current issues, Iran still feels compelled to hold elections).
Thinking outside the box
This section will be quite short- because I will avoid tiptoeing around the main issues: stability and development, and why this could be an interesting development.
Why should the three countries share stability and development goals?
Because the populations of Turkey and Iran are relatively young- and sensibly larger than Israel’s, while Israel, also to finance its state of readiness and independent military industry, developed a vibrant and innovative technology and research-to-production pipeline.
To say nothing about the potential contribution of the “virtual ambassadors” from the diaspora (and I mean from each one of the countries involved).
I will not talk about the trade routes issue: just have a look at the map.
And after some recent public suggestion from Russia to NATO countries busy in Afghanistan (on the tune of “you are doing the same errors that we did before”), it seems that already stability is pushing on the sidelines other differences- and Iran could be a significant partner to stabilize the region.
Proof? Have a look at the list of the countries contributing naval presence to contain the piracy issue nearby the oil routes.
The interesting part of an opportunistic alliance of Turkey-Israel-Iran is that they could actually help solve regional issues (e.g. water and energy supply) regionally.
And just consider what three industrial countries ensuring a grudging regional stability could do in a region that has one of the highest birth rates- e.g. helping other countries in the region to develop.
With oil from Iran and Iraq, consumer goods from Turkey, and high-tech and access to capital markets from Israel, the Arabian peninsula could achieve in a short time a dramatic political and economical overhaul.
Israel is already a nuclear country, Iran is on the threshold of becoming one, and Turkey, along with Israel, has a relatively mobile military force, used to work with Americans, and therefore, to a certain degree, able to achieve some operational integration, while a refurbished Iranian military could help stabilize the Gulf routes.
It requires a leap of faith? No. Just a cold-blooded opportunism- and a new regional economic development engine.
Anyway- it could be a chance to restore the old “cuius regio, eius religio” that we European used few centuries ago to halt our religion wars.
And, looking at the results, it seems that we did not fare that bad (despite the current woes of the Euro).
