You want your model to work in reality, and therefore you have to assume that others have their own models.
It is a game. Like playing chess. Or the usual “prisoner’s dilemma”.
From models, we will move to the interaction between models- and between different decision paths within a model.
A down-to-earth introduction to the game theory.
This post is part of a series, first published in May 2009.
When you build a model of reality, you try to reduce complexity.
Reducing complexity means making choices- and reducing the risk of something unexpected affecting the results of your model.
Actually, it means also reducing the number of parameters- and, therefore, making any evolution in your world more predictable.
But reality is not necessarily limited by your definition: and managing the reality within a model requires more that planning beforehand for what you know, in terms of activities or risks.
You have also to identify what is the “normal” way in which your model will react to unexpected changes in the “reality” surrounding your model.
This post is part of a series, first published in May 2009.
AGB2009: Bridges
Sunday, November 1st, 2009This part of the AGB2009 series (see the presentation)
AGB2009: BRIDGES
BACKGROUND
I know what some of the locals would say.
But, on an overall “helicopter view”, it is irrelevant.
ABSTRACT
Mixing change in politics and business is always a risky affair- and I am not referring to the tulip craze.
Just read the enclosed bibliography.
I might be wrong- but changing a culture requires a long-term view, that sometimes requires more real-politik and less short-term results.
Tags: AGB2009, china, european, gorbachev, india, israel, politik, real, russia, turkey, union, usa
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